Leppert's New Ad and Cruz's New Challenge

This morning, Tom Leppert released his second television ad, which again highlights his business record and focus on job creation. The ad looks great and has a resonating message. People need jobs, and Leppert claims he is the guy to create them.

I’ve written previously about Leppert’s conservative authenticity gap, but this is a positive step for his campaign.

Perhaps as a result of Leppert’s new ads or to push back against the toll that has been taken to his credibility as a result of the flood of negative articles last week, Ted Cruz issued an open challenge to Lt. Governor David Dewhurst to participate in five Lincoln-Douglas style debates.

If you talk to ten different people about why a challenger with low name ID and zero political experience would ask for debates, you’d probably get ten different answers. The one important trait this exposes from the Cruz campaign is an unsettling arrogance.





Tom Leppert has a potentially strong bloc of voters in Dallas, and is reinforcing that base with hundreds of thousands of dollars in paid media before the holidays. For Cruz to write-off Leppert, who has a nearly 2:1 cash advantage over Ted, demonstrates a rookie’s hubris.

Tom Leppert used his financial advantage to defeat multiple, qualified candidates in his Dallas mayoral race. And he has demonstrated he will say (although not always act on) what it takes to win.



Cruz dismisses his opponents at his own peril.

Cruz Coverage Continues

I thought that the coverage of Cruz’s missteps on his family history would be over this week. After Bob Garrett’s blog post transformed into a story in the print edition, I considered this issue over.

This morning, though, the Dallas Morning News continued their coverage, this time in the form of an editorial that gives practice advice to Mr. Cruz on dealing with his family history in his Senate run.

“Cruz, who had not run for elected office until now, should have been clearer in describing his own history and far more assertive in controlling those who were loose with its particulars.”

Adding to Mr. Cruz’s woes was Part II in his self-inflicted wounds, his bulldog attack of the Council on Foreign Relations. In case you missed it, Cruz referred to the group as snakes who are threatening American sovereignty.

Perhaps he did not think through his answer, but Ted’s wife, Heidi Cruz, was a member of the Council on Foreign Relations until this June.

Heidi served a five-year term on the CFR, where she served as a co-author of a report that many blog commenters seem to interpret as calling for a North American Union. My reading of it is that the CFR is advocating for a closer relationship between Canada, Mexico and the United States – no more no less.

An entry on David Frum’s website asked why Ted, an Ivy League-educated attorney who has spent most of his adult life as a government lawyer, would veer so hard to the tinfoil hat side of the conservative wing.

To the author, the answer is simple – political expedience.  

How Cruz responds between now and Thanksgiving, when campaigns traditionally go underground, will be an interesting case study for a candidate who has spent so much time courting the Washington press, only now to face attacks from it.

Meet the Cruzes, Part II

The last two days for the Ted Cruz Senate campaign have not been the best, and his family has been the focus of the vulnerability.

The Dallas Morning News wrote about Cruz’s family history, and Ted made a rare error for candidate whose campaign prides itself on discipline.

In the article, when pressed about whether he corrected those who said positive but inaccurate things about Cruz’s family story, his answers did not sync up for journalist Robert Garrett.

This line from Garrett’s article is damning: “Cruz, a Republican and former state solicitor general, said this week he felt no obligation to correct others’ mistaken impressions.”

This morning, Politico broke the story about Ted Cruz savaging the Council on Foreign Relations, an influential New York-based think tank concentrated on international affairs and foreign policy.

From the Politico article: When asked about the Council at another event in Tyler, Tex., on Oct. 15 -- Texas, home of Ron Paul and Alex Jones, is the sort of place this comes up a lot -- Cruz called the organization "a pernicious nest of snakes" that is "working to undermine our sovereignty," according to video provided by someone who opposes his candidacy.

One problem – his wife Heidi was a member of this organization up until June of this year.

Ted Cruz remains a strong, compelling candidate but this week has to be a real blow to his credibility. When Cruz is off-script from the speech he has been delivering for over a year – it becomes clear that his desire for applause lines has occasionally gotten in the way of the truth.

Dallas Morning News: A tighter-lipped Cruz lets others fill in blanks on Cuban father's exodus

Here is the story from today's Dallas Morning News. It's even-handed, but had a glaring inaccuracy about Cruz being born in America. Cruz was born in Calgary.

This is just another example of the strain under which reporters, proofreaders and copy editors must be in in this time of intense change in the newspaper industry.

I have underlined a few things that caught my eye.

A tighter-lipped Cruz lets others fill in blanks on Cuban father’s exodus

By Robert T. Garrett

Austin — Texas U.S. Senate hopeful Ted Cruz often laces his speeches and radio interviews with a story about how his father fled Cuban oppression.

But this fall, Cruz told few if any audiences that his father came to the U.S. in 1957, more than a year before Fidel Castro came to power, and that his flight was from the regime of right-wing dictator Fulgencio Batista, not Castro’s.

Cruz has remained silent as journalists and political activists repeatedly — and incorrectly — placed his father among the many Cubans who fled after Castro took power. Cruz’s father, Rafael, was a guerrilla who fought to topple Batista, though he departed for Texas before the Cuban revolution succeeded.

Cruz, a Republican and former state solicitor general, said this week he felt no obligation to correct others’ mistaken impressions.

“I have many, many times described the full context of his fighting with Castro — in the broader sense … not side by side but on the same side as Castro,” Cruz said in an interview Monday.

A review by The Dallas Morning News of dozens of speeches and interviews Cruz has given since 2005 found no instances of his incorrectly describing when his father fled from Cuba, as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., recently acknowledged doing.

Last week, The Washington Post reported that Rubio said on three occasions since 2006 and on his official Senate website that his parents came to the U.S. after Castro’s forces overthrew Batista in January 1959. They actually arrived more than 21/2 years earlier. Rubio has said his parents wanted to go back to Cuba but couldn’t because of Castro’s Marxist oppression.

Like Rubio, Cruz was born in the U.S.

Cruz, a Republican conservative firebrand, has shaped and reshaped the story of his father, who is now 72 and lives in Carrollton , since 2009, when the younger Cruz ran briefly for state attorney general. Last January, Ted Cruz threw his hat into the ring for the seat of retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, and he now faces a crowded March primary field.

Until August, Cruz routinely said in public appearances that in 1956, under the Batista regime, his paternal grandfather bribed guards to free his father from prison. Rafael Cruz, though, recently told his son that wasn’t accurate.

“My dad said, ‘No, that that piece is not the case, I don’t believe that is right,’ and so I’ve stopped saying that,” Ted Cruz said. He said his father, then 17, was tortured and “beaten almost to death.”

In at least seven speeches and radio interviews last month and this month, Cruz talked about his father’s flight from Cuba but mentioned neither the date nor Batista, The News found.

In an appearance earlier this month at the Values Voter Summit in Washington, Cruz quoted his father as saying in a speech at a 2009 Dallas Tea Party rally: “When I was a young man, I saw a young charismatic leader come to power, and he promised hope and change.”

Ted Cruz acknowledged Monday that his father was talking about Castro’s early years in power. “He didn’t say he was there firsthand, suffering it. He just described it,” the younger Cruz said.

In a 2006 report, the Austin American-Statesman quoted Cruz as saying his father “was a guerrilla, throwing Molotov cocktails and blowing up buildings.”

“Anytime one is recounting oral history of your family, there are necessarily some vagaries that come with memories 50, 60 years ago,” Cruz said. “There is nothing to hide.”

Click here to read the full story.

Meet the Cruzes

This morning, Bob Garrett of the Dallas Morning News, wrote about the parallels between the the family narratives of Senator Marco Rubio and U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz.

Rubio has done a full-court press on conservative talk shows, and the Miami media has circled the wagons to protect Rubio against the allegations of embellishing his background to frame a better narrative.

Rubio is a skilled politician who recognizes the value of a good story.

And Ted Cruz? At the recent Value Voters Summit, he had this to say:

"My father fled Cuba and came to the United States when he was 18. He didn't speak a word of English. He landed in Austin, Texas with no possessions," Cruz said.

"When I was a kid, my dad used to say to say to me all the time, when we faced oppression in Cuba, I had a place to flee to," [Cruz] continued.

Cruz is either artful or deceptive in never mentioning who was the oppressor: Fulgencio Batista or Fidel Castro.

Dallas Morning News: “Texas U.S. Senate hopeful Ted Cruz often ends his speeches with a story about how his father fled Cuban oppression.

“But what the stumping GOP Senate candidate hadn't clarified, until asked by The Dallas Morning News this week, was that his father departed for the U.S. in 1957, more than a year before Fidel Castro came to power.”

A little digging shows the extent to which Rafael Cruz fought with Castro.

“My Dad spent the next four years throwing Molotov cocktails, blowing up buildings,” Cruz has said.

I think Cruz must have answers to the questions that will follow:

Has Ted Cruz ever let the characterization that his father was oppressed by Fidel Castro stand?

How did Cruz’s father enter the country if, as Ted maintains, it was not illegally?

Some of this story highlights the ugly side of politics, but a principal part of the Ted Cruz narrative is that of his father’s journey to America. These questions may never come, but regardless, I’m sure we will see a more consistent Ted Cruz in the future.

Is Jason Johnson Ted Cruz's glass jaw?

Maybe Jason Johnson knows something I don’t, but I doubt it.

In the latest memo from general consultant Jason Johnson, the Ted Cruz campaign rolls out their case for victory. Rather than highlight the genuine, positive attributes of their campaign that are based in reality, Johnson instead lays out the foundation of his case using three factors that are a complete house of cards.

Johnson’s claims:

1)      Cruz has won “11 consecutive straw polls against the major candidates”

If Johnson is trying to portray Ted Cruz as a Tea Party juggernaut, he is conveniently forgetting that another Tea Party favorite Glenn Addison handily defeated Ted Cruz at two of the most high-profile straw polls in Waco and Austin.
 

2)      Cruz has the highest fundraising total of anyone in this race*

Over the last 270 days, Cruz raised more money than any other Senate candidate ($2.8M); however, it took David Dewhurst ($2.64M in 3^rd Quarter) less than 45 days to nearly outraise the amount Cruz has raised over the last 270 days.

Tom Leppert has raised nearly $2.5 million, also over the last nine months, but has the personal resources to make up for any fundraising edge Cruz may have.

Both Dewhurst and Leppert dwarf Cruz in cash-on-hand.  

3)      Johnson touts poll showing Cruz in first place

As I have mentioned before, Johnson and the Cruz campaign team are doing their candidate a disservice in promoting this poll. No matter how the poll is framed, it is based on faulty methodology. The campaign will have to stand by this talking point the next time any major public poll comes out.

In his overly-defensive response to a barb that trial lawyer Ted Cruz is on the wrong side in his legal defense of a Chinese conglomerate against an American inventor; and in this meandering memo, Johnson emerges as the glass jaw of the Cruz campaign.

In spite of Johnson’s recklessness, campaign manager John Drogin deserves true credit for maximizing Cruz’s connections with the Ivy League, Wall Street bankers, trial lawyers and Washington insiders into quality, national earned-media appearances for his candidate.

Jason Johnson? Not so much.

After losing Greg Abbott as a client, Johnson seems to be doubling down on a Cruz candidacy by chasing every wild pitch. Memos like these only serve as notice that he is not ready for the major league.

Tom Leppert's new pat-on-the-back ad

Today, former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert released the first television ad in the Texas Senate race. The spot features Leppert walking along a street with abandoned buildings in the background, touting his record as a job creator.

His message is simple, I’m about jobs and I’m the only one in the race who has created jobs.

It’s an effective message that is completely false.

Leppert could have had a homerun ad that is both timely and accurate had he not tried to give himself too much credit. Both Tea Party favorite Glenn Addison and Lt. Governor David Dewhurst either owned or created their own businesses and created jobs.

According to Addison’s official biography, he started his own independent insurance agency and owns and operates funeral facilities.

Dewhurst made his fortune building cogeneration plants in the 90s, creating hundreds of jobs in the construction and maintenance of the plants.

So why release an ad now? To date, Leppert has taken on water from the mainstream media and blogosphere for portraying himself as a conservative despite his ties to Washington Mutual, ACORN, SEIU and for raising taxes as one of his first acts as Mayor.

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert dons an SEIU shirt

In addition, Leppert's donations to Democrats and participation in gay pride parades are not associations tailor-made for a smashmouth Republican primary.

National Journal theorizes that the early launch is result of the predicament he is in as a candidate. The article pointedly asks, “Is there room for a self-funder, whose more-moderate positions on social issues could give conservative voters pause?”

We’ll find out on March 6^th.

To McCaul or not to McCaul

According to the National Journal, this week Texas Congressman Michael McCaul will decide whether he will run for the U.S. Senate.

It’s no secret that McCaul covets the chairmanship of the House Committee on Homeland Security. A failed Senate run would leave him out of Washington entirely. With those risks, what has sparked McCaul’s interest?

Pragmatically, U.S. Senate seats don’t come around very often and McCaul’s bank account automatically makes him a player. Due to his wife Linda’s personal, family fortune, McCaul is the richest member of Congress, worth over $250 million. A showdown between mega-rich candidates like David Dewhurst and Michael McCaul will have insiders salivating.

How would the other candidates attack/react? Trial lawyer Ted Cruz will attack McCaul’s record both as a prosecutor and his record in Washington, likely becoming the defacto attack dog for Dewhurst.

McCaul will instantly become the Washington candidate in a year in which having DC experience is an albatross not a benefit.

McCaul would, of course, have the resources to offset many of the attacks, thereby marginalizing candidates who are not as well-funded. However, as the campaign gets nastier, McCaul’s biggest strength - $$ - could be his biggest weakness.

Tom Leppert is a respected corporate CEO. David Dewhurst built his company, Falcon Seaboard, from scratch. Both have amassed their wealth through their own labor.

In contrast with Leppert and Dewhurst and their respective business experience, McCaul will be snickered at as a man who married into his fortune. What is creepier than the thought of a male gold-digger?

As a fan of the sport of politics, McCaul’s entry would shake things up. At the very least, it would make the negative attacks more interesting.

Fundraising, polls, outliers and what it all means in Texas

With Governor Perry back in the saddle after last night’s debate, life still goes on in Texas politics for those of us on the sidelines.

Next down on the rung is the Texas Senate race. To date, nearly 7 billion people have filed for this seat, but after raking in more dough ($2.6 million) than any other GOP Senate candidate this cycle and contributing $2 million personally, David Dewhurst reinforced his position as the 800-lb. gorilla.

From the get-go, the race has been Dewhurst’s to lose. He’s got name ID, connections and personal wealth that ensure that he will have the resources to run a relentless media campaign. As the frontrunner, though, he is in the unenviable position of having to take all the arrows from his competitors without engaging them in response at the risk of elevating them.  

Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert has chipped in enough personal money to be competitive with Dewhurst at this point. But in his last report, his organic contributions are on a steady decline and his moderate positions have failed to capture the imagination of the electorate.

Former Solicitor General Ted Cruz has worked hard to build a name among the Tea Party kingmakers in Washington, and has an aggressive social media presence. Jim DeMint’s PAC pitched in over $250,000 to Cruz’ campaign, with Cruz hauling in approximately $1 million during the 3^rd Quarter. The Cruz campaign has grown its Facebook audience to over 60,000 as a result of semi-constant online advertisements dating back to his failed run for Attorney General in 2009.

Cruz is trying to parlay his eloquence and talent as a trial lawyer into notice among the Washington intelligentsia. He has already captured the cover of the National Review and a host of out-of-state endorsements. He is hoping to capture the magic of Marco Rubio, although the road will be far more difficult with an intense Presidential primary looming that will suck the oxegyn out of the room.

What will be the undoing of his momentum, in reality, is the inexperience of the team surrounding him. The most glaring example came recently after the release of an Azimuth poll with questionable validity.

The Cruz camp went on the offensive touting this poll, showing Ted neck and neck with Dewhurst.

The most important lesson the Cruz camp has yet to learn is that if you live by the polls, you die by the polls. You’ll note that one of the first moves that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison made as a candidate for Governor was release high poll numbers. That move haunted her for the duration of the 2010 campaign as her support gradually eroded. Now Cruz is following the same, losing playbook.

I don’t think there is a person who follows Texas politics that believes that Ted Cruz is even with David Dewhurst at this point, but his campaign has chosen to push this as their narrative instead of waiting to see if this is an outlier.

In promoting this poll without mentioning the details, their campaign risks the perception of being in free-fall when the next poll comes out that uses primary voters as the audience.

Cruz has a very bright future in Texas politics, but you cannot get to the Promised Land accompanied by a confederacy of dunces. Hopefully there will soon be some public polling available to see if the Cruz camp was right in their aggression, or if their short-game mindset will fail them in the long-run.