Fundraising, polls, outliers and what it all means in Texas

With Governor Perry back in the saddle after last night’s debate, life still goes on in Texas politics for those of us on the sidelines.

Next down on the rung is the Texas Senate race. To date, nearly 7 billion people have filed for this seat, but after raking in more dough ($2.6 million) than any other GOP Senate candidate this cycle and contributing $2 million personally, David Dewhurst reinforced his position as the 800-lb. gorilla.

From the get-go, the race has been Dewhurst’s to lose. He’s got name ID, connections and personal wealth that ensure that he will have the resources to run a relentless media campaign. As the frontrunner, though, he is in the unenviable position of having to take all the arrows from his competitors without engaging them in response at the risk of elevating them.  

Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert has chipped in enough personal money to be competitive with Dewhurst at this point. But in his last report, his organic contributions are on a steady decline and his moderate positions have failed to capture the imagination of the electorate.

Former Solicitor General Ted Cruz has worked hard to build a name among the Tea Party kingmakers in Washington, and has an aggressive social media presence. Jim DeMint’s PAC pitched in over $250,000 to Cruz’ campaign, with Cruz hauling in approximately $1 million during the 3^rd Quarter. The Cruz campaign has grown its Facebook audience to over 60,000 as a result of semi-constant online advertisements dating back to his failed run for Attorney General in 2009.

Cruz is trying to parlay his eloquence and talent as a trial lawyer into notice among the Washington intelligentsia. He has already captured the cover of the National Review and a host of out-of-state endorsements. He is hoping to capture the magic of Marco Rubio, although the road will be far more difficult with an intense Presidential primary looming that will suck the oxegyn out of the room.

What will be the undoing of his momentum, in reality, is the inexperience of the team surrounding him. The most glaring example came recently after the release of an Azimuth poll with questionable validity.

The Cruz camp went on the offensive touting this poll, showing Ted neck and neck with Dewhurst.

The most important lesson the Cruz camp has yet to learn is that if you live by the polls, you die by the polls. You’ll note that one of the first moves that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison made as a candidate for Governor was release high poll numbers. That move haunted her for the duration of the 2010 campaign as her support gradually eroded. Now Cruz is following the same, losing playbook.

I don’t think there is a person who follows Texas politics that believes that Ted Cruz is even with David Dewhurst at this point, but his campaign has chosen to push this as their narrative instead of waiting to see if this is an outlier.

In promoting this poll without mentioning the details, their campaign risks the perception of being in free-fall when the next poll comes out that uses primary voters as the audience.

Cruz has a very bright future in Texas politics, but you cannot get to the Promised Land accompanied by a confederacy of dunces. Hopefully there will soon be some public polling available to see if the Cruz camp was right in their aggression, or if their short-game mindset will fail them in the long-run.